Latest advisory
Hurricane Dolly has strengthened further early this morning and now has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. All indications are this storm is going to continue to strengthen before landfall. We could have a Cat 2 hurricane pretty easily before landfall in South Texas in the next 5-6 hours.Hurricane advisories are now being issued every 2 hours before landfall. So, 7am, 9am, 11am etc…
The eyewall of Hurricane Dolly (where the most intense winds and rainfall is located) is just about 50 miles away from the shoreline. Tropical Storm force winds are being felt now up to Corpus Christi. Storm surge, w ill be about 3-5 ft.
Because Dolly is moving so slowly, the forecast amounts of 6-12 inches of rain could easily be surpassed, and this might be the legacy of this storm: life-threatening flooding.
I will send each advisory out as it comes in.
Meantime, there is another area of low pressure we are monitoring for development just off the African Coast. This could develop over the next several day. This is going to be a busy season!
Here’s the latest advisory:
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the coast of Texas from
Brownsville to Corpus Christi…and for the northeastern coast of
Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the border between Mexico
and the United States. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.At 600 am CDT…1100z…the center of Hurricane Dolly was located
near latitude 25.8 north…longitude 96.6 west or about 55 miles…
90 km…east of Brownsville Texas.
Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph…13 km/hr…and
northwestward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease
in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track…the
center of Dolly will be along the coast near the Texas/Mexico
border around midday today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph…140 km/hr…with higher
gusts. Dolly is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some increase in strength is expected…and Dolly could
approach category two intensity when it reaches the coastline later
today.Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles…35 km…from
the center…and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles…220 km.
An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft recently
reported a minimum central pressure of 972 mb…28.70 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10
inches…with isolated amounts of 15 inches…over portions of south
Texas and northeastern Mexico over the next few days. These rains
will likely cause widespread flooding across portions of south
Texas and northeast Mexico.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels…along with large and dangerous battering waves…can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of south Texas today
and tonight.Repeating the 600 am CDT position…25.8 N…96.6 W. Movement
toward…northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds…85 mph.
Minimum central pressure…972 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
am CDT.$$
Forecaster Avila

Good morning everyone
Dr Jeff Masters has some radar links of the area effected by hurricane Dolly for those interested in following this storm live.
The main concern now is the slow movement of the storm and the potential for flooding from the prolonged downpours it this will bring.
h ttp://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=995&tstamp=200807
To get the link to post, I have put a space in http. Just copy/paste address and delete space and it should work……………..maybe
Hey Janice,
Thanks for all your hard work on keeping track of this storm. It sounds like it’s going to dump a lot of rain so I hope people are taking precautions. You know how people are–they think they can handle a category 1 storm, but they find out the hard way there are more things to worry about than just the wind. I checked some of the WeatherBug stations in Brownsville and the highest wind gust I found was 68 mph and some spots already have close to an inch of rain today. I appreciate all the hard work you do and I hope you will get some rest amidst all the busyness. Take care of yourself.
Margie
Dear Janice, This will seem a little strange, but having lived on the coast of Florida for many years, we have learned that for a Catagory 1 or 2 storm, in most cases, it’s best to stay put. If you are not in a mobile home, are not in a flood prone zone, or are not living on the beach at sea level, don’t evacuate. You’re jamming the highways for nothing. If you head inland, your risks of tornados is greater. Get some “comfort food”, collect some water, make sure you have batteries for your flashlights, and get out the cards and boardgames. I am not trying to minimize these storms, but quite honestly, I don’t understand the panic. More than anything, Cats 1 and 2 are yard messes. I live on the Intracoastal waterway, on a piece of property with good elevation. We did evacuate for Hurricane Ivan (we WERE the northeast quadrant of that storm). We went 100 miles inland to a town in Alabama. We had a terrifying night of tornadoes, falling trees, roaring winds, lost all power, it was awful. ( Here’s what I’ve learned: If you’re going to evacuate, evacuate to the west, if possible. You’re wasting your time and putting yourself at greater risk by just moving inland.) When we returned home after Ivan, there was a huge mess in the yard and down on the beach, , but all of the trees had survived, losing only limbs. I now wonder if we would have been safer, had we stayed home. If you’re going to live on the water, elevation is everything.
Here’s the latest on Dolly…………
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D923J3380&show_article=1&catnum=0
Jean,
I agree with you about people panicking about storms, but there are always those that take them too lightly. I saw a scene somewhere during one of the hurricanes where this family was out with kids and the waves were crashing over a retaining wall (or whatever it was) and getting everyone soaked. Now, I’d like to know what was going through the parents’ minds! If one of those waves knocked down a kid and took them out to sea, there’s no way that the parents could have saved them. That’s just plain stupid.
As of 10:00 a.m. local time, South Padre Island has over 3.5 inches of rain and 77 mph winds. It must be coming down in buckets down there because as I watched the WeatherBug numbers, it jumped by 1/4 of an inch. That’s a lot of rain! I heard them talking of fears that the levy may break on the Rio Grande River. We’ve seen what can happen when levies break and I think that’s why there’s so much concern about this storm. It’s moving slowly and dumping tons of rain. People just need to use common sense, but unfortunately some people are in short supply of that!
Have a great day, everyone.
Margie
Jean…
There is that fine line isnt there when it comes to reporting….Making people panic is often worse the the event itself (isnt almost always the case?…Ask anyone who has been in a fire)
But people not heeding warnings is another problem as well for officials especially if things get really bad…..Among other things….
In the end a good dose of common sense and not panicing will go along way for everyone if everyone will just exercise it….
Often times people just dont do the common sense route…
Again
Just my .02
Jean……………having lived in Florida myself from 1979 to 1985, and having gone through several tropical systems myself, I’ve learned that proper planning ahead of time is the trick. Have a “storm plan” for you and your family put in place long before hurricane season begins. Know your ‘when, where and how’ about your storm plans before the storm hits. “When” do I decide to stay or evacuate, “Where” am I going to evacuate to and “How” will I get there.
Deciding this well ahead of time will prevent any confusion, and it’s the confusion that is usually the leading cause of panic.
John-
Thanks for the update! I really like andrew breitbart, He is a regular panelist on Red Eye, if you are a fan of the late night show.
Jean-
I dont think panicking during a time a crisis is going to solve anything. You just need to use your best judgement, and take whatevery precautions to protect yourself and your family, and you will do just fine