Janice Dean the Weather Machine

Hurricane Gustav shows threat now to Gulf

Gustav is now a hurricane (Cat 1) with winds of 85 mph (hurricane hunters are finding winds in excess of 100 mph right now as they fly through the storm). The track is now showing this will be a major hurricane (Cat 3 at least) by the weekend moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Most models have Gustav over the Northwest Caribbean or the SW Gulf of Mexico by Saturday/Sunday. The steering factor here will be a ridge of high pressure and how strong it is to keep Gustav on a westward track.

Later on this week, Gustav will be over extremely warm water and favorable conditions to strengthen, so rapid intensification is very possible. One of the models has this as a Cat 5 storm by the weekend. Certainly not out of the question.

I will have more throughout the day…

 jd

45 Responses to “Hurricane Gustav shows threat now to Gulf”

Comment by chas

Good morning Ms. Janice,

morning fellow bloggers.

Wow, you’re up early this morning.

I found that the pictures I sent the other day can only be sent one at a time so I resent 2 yesterday.

Too faraway I’m sure for any prediction of where it might hit landfall I suppose.

I hope you have a gret day.

chas

Comment by Janice Dean

I will check those soon and post Chas I promise.

 
 
Comment by Wenchie

Oh…Not good news…. Dont need big hurricanes…

Good morning all….

 
Comment by John

Fill up your cars and trucks with gas while the price is still “low”. The last time a CAT 3, or greater, hurricane (Katrina) hit the Gulf of Mexico the price of gas rose up to 40% at the pump overnight……..Especially in the southern states.
Oil speculators are sure to jump all over this one if there is any news of oil production shutdowns because of the storm. They have just been waiting for an excuse like this to drive the price of a barrel of oil back up to mid-summer levels.

Now for some happy news……………………….

Bear with me, still looking…………………..

Still looking………………………….Oh well, I’ll get back to you when I find some. Have a great day everyone.

 
Comment by Wenchie

Well my “happy” news is that…

I have one cat cuddled on my lap…the other at my feet…and the third by my side….and my coffee is good :D

Its the little joys that fill the deepest spots :)

Comment by Janice Dean

That sounds so adorable and warm! ;)

 
 
Comment by Margie Gacki

Hey Janice,

You certainly were up early to bring us that wonderful news about Gustav! It looks like it might spare Florida, so that’s good. Thanks for working so hard to keep us all updated. You do a great job. I hope things don’t get too crazy for you with Gustav lurking.

Hey Dawn,

I didn’t have a cat to cuddle on my lap this morning, but I did have a good cup of tea while I did my morning devotions. That helps get me going in the morning! I don’t have a headache this morning, so that’s good. It’s been a bad year for my sinuses, but I’ll survive.

I’ve been working on some fun projects the past few days and it’s always fulfilling to be doing something creative. Our “world tour” pictures was one of those projects. I always find something creative to do!

I hope everyone has a great day.

Margie

Comment by Janice Dean

Up early for the rest of the week Margie…ugh. Hurricane season….

 
 
Comment by Luis

Houston, we may have a problem………….. :)

Thanks for the update Goddess

Comment by Janice Dean

Anything is possible Luis!

 
 
Comment by Gwen in Mississippi

Morning All!
The good news is: I’m alive and well, my family is healthy, and the much needed and appreciated rain from Fay has finally begun to slack off. (Total of 8 inches in my rain gauge the past few days.) I agree, Dawn, that we must see our blessings in the small things, the moments of our life.

Looks like next week could be interesting however. Luis, I’m not sure which way Gustav is going, but we Gulf folks better be watching. John, you’re so right about gassing up the vehicles. I remember Katrina and the days after only too well. We’ll be celebrating that 3rd anniversary in 3 days—if you want to call that celebrating. At any rate, it’s time to stock up on water, non-perishable food items (peanut butter, crackers, Vienna sausage, bread and ice) and make sure the generator is working and that we’ve got gas to run it. Finding the gas to keep the generator going was a major headache after Katrina. Oh yeah, I need to make sure the batteries in the radio are good. Better get started on that check list.

Deb, I’m hoping you’re getting some of the Fay rains up in your area by now. I thought of you when I looked at the radar map this morning. Looked like those rains may be over you now.

Hi, Margie. Glad you don’t have a headache this morning. Those sinus headaches can be miserable—I too have struggled with sinus problems my entire life.

Gwen

Comment by Janice Dean

Gwen, very good perspective on things! Hope you had a great day…

 
 
Comment by TnDeb

Good Morning Janice and all,

My area is finally getting the remnants of Fay…it started raining last night..and hasn’t stopped since. We have flash flood warnings out now..but hopefully all will be well.

Temp is currently 65, with a cool breeze..a very pleasant and welcome change from Hot and Dry. So I have no complaints.(yet).. :)

I hope y’all have a great Tuesday..
Deb..soaking up the rain

 
Comment by TnDeb

BTW…I am very thankful for another day to enjoy my family, friends,fellow bloggers and all the simple pleasures of life.. :)

Comment by Janice Dean

YAY! You’re absolutely right on Deb!

 
 
Comment by Gwen in Mississippi

Oops! Technically, ice would not be a non-perishable item—nor necessarily a food item. It is, however, a much needed item in extended periods of power outage. It’s best to have a few bags on hand.

 
Comment by Margie Gacki

Hey Gang,

As long as we’re sharing what we’re thankful for–I’m thankful for all of you! I enjoy chatting with you and traveling the world with some of you! You’re a great bunch. Janice, you have a great bunch here and I thank you for taking the time to make this blog lots of fun. You do a great job!

I’m thankful that God has blessed me with a wonderful family. I’ll be heading to visit my parents this weekend and there will be a special treat with a trip to Red Lobster on Saturday–yummy! I have a wonderful family and friends and I’m grateful for all of them.

Gwen,

I hope you don’t have to deal with Gustav. It sounds like that storm could be a menace. You know, I went a couple hours this morning without a headache but it’s come back to visit. I hate having the feeling that my head is going to explode! I won’t complain however, because having sinus problems is very minor compared to what some people are dealing with. I might not be functioning very well, but at least I’m not dying.

I hope everyone has a great day.

Margie

 
Comment by RICH

A CAT 5 COMING…..FROM PRELIMINARY TRACK APPEARS TO BE HEADED INTO GULF AND THEN TOWARD LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA AND POSSIBLY FLORIDA PANHANDLE…..VERY MUCH LIKE ANOTHER POSTER…. FILL UP WITH GAS CAUSE SPEC BOYS GONNA HAVE FIELD DAY WITH GUSTAV……POSTING FROM NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI……

 
Comment by Jason

Please pray for everyone that will be facing Gustav. It looks like it’s gonna be a bad one.

 
Comment by Anne

Ok… enough is enough.. Everytime we get a storm in the area the forecasters try their best to make it a event before it is an event. I know the rain was terrible for Florida last week… but they said Alabama ( Mobile and Baldwin Counties) were to receive between 15 to 25 inches… That DIDN”T HAPPEN!! It was actually beautiful here. The loss of revenue for the area was horrible. Now they are doing it again. Can’t we at least wait for it to get past Cuba before we declare that we are all doomed!! And to even state that it may be a cat5 is horrible… If we keep crying wolf people are going to quit listening when they really need to.

 
Comment by Margie Gacki

Anne,

Every time we have a hurricane or tropical storm meteorologists warn people so they will be prepared. Too many people took Fay lightly since it was just a tropical storm and I think 12 people died because they didn’t heed the warnings. Those warnings are made for a good reason! Someone from Florida wrote last week complaining about the same thing and called Fay “just a summer storm.” Unfortunately, that was before the storm dumped 10-20 inches of rain in that area. I don’t think that blogger is calling Fay “just a summer storm” anymore. People are warned of the possibilities in advance so they have time to prepare. I’d rather have many days notice so I can prepare than to be told the day before that there’s a category 3+ storm going to hit the next day. Prudent people prepare in advance and don’t wait until the last minute when there’s a mad scramble for things they should have had days earlier. And one more thing, according to WeatherBug, areas around Mobile got plenty of rain from Fay, so it all depends on your exact location since the storm had bands of rain. I hope Gustav doesn’t come your way because you sound like one of those who don’t take warnings seriously. I hope you don’t regret that.

Margie

 
Comment by John

I have to agree with Margie about the time frame for giving warnings about huricanes. One only has to look at the death tolls of storms in the 1800’s and earlier 1900’s when people had at best a two day warning that something was coming and compare them to today’s death toll figures. One of the main reasons they are lower today is because of our ability to inform and warn the public well in advance of a major storm. Giving them ample time to prepare if they so desire. I’m sure those unfortunate ones that lost their lives were least concerned at the time of their death about any inconveniences early warnings brought or the possible slight loss of income they imposed.

 
Comment by Gwen in Mississippi

Anne,
As someone who has lived for 50+ years in a hurricane zone , I can understand your frustration when forecasters make too much of a storm. I have laughed at the idiots who stand out in the wind and rain with a microphone and thought to myself, “What kind of moron are you?” However, having lived through storms like Camille, Frederick, Georges, Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina, I can definitely say that I do appreciate those forecasters who try to give us a heads up. Lots of folks may think nothing of it and go their merry way. We don’t! We do take heed and keep an eye on these storms. We do prepare and have food items, flashlights, radios, and plenty of gas for vehicles and the generator. If you choose not to do these things, that’s fine. But you never know which one of these storms will turn into “the big one”, so it’s just a good idea to keep an eye on them. Personally, I prefer knowing about the storms as far in advance as possible. Alot of people in New Orleans were warned that a hurricane could possibly hit them. They lucked out—Katrina didn’t hit them, she made landfall east of there and absolutely destroyed the MS Gulf Coast. However, the flood waters did cause the levees to fail—something that the people in power in NO have known for many years was likely to happen. The flood waters killed alot of people who might otherwise have lived had they taken the warnings seriously. I don’t want these storms hyped—but I do want to know about them so that my family can be prepared. You don’t have to watch the weather reports, and you can change the channel when the reporters start talking about the lastest tropical depression. You make that decision. For me, it’s better to have as much information in advance as possible. A little bit of lost revenue for a weekend isn’t a good thing; but just consider yourself fortunate that that is all you lost. Sooner or later a big one will hit your area, and the loss of revenue may be for many years to come.
Gwen

Comment by Janice Dean

Thanks for your perspective Gwen, John and Margie. I guess there’s always going to be those who think the weather-people are out to scare the world…(you could say that about Global Warming advocates as well…) It’s part of the gig. I hope Anne you never have to endure a bad storm in your backyard…

 
 
Comment by TnDeb

Gwen…

Very well said…

 
Comment by Brad

Nine-year-old Jericho Scott is a good baseball player— too good, it turns out.

The right-hander has a fastball that tops out at about 40 mph. He throws so hard that the Youth Baseball League of New Haven told his coach that the boy could not pitch any more. When Jericho took the mound anyway last week, the opposing team forfeited the game, packed its gear and left, his coach said.

Officials for the three-year-old league, which has eight teams and about 100 players, said they will disband Jericho’s team, redistributing its players among other squads, and offered to refund $50 sign-up fees to anyone who asks for it. They say Jericho’s coach, Wilfred Vidro, has resigned.

 
Comment by Anne

Margie… I take warnings seriously, I have been through many hurricanes in my lifetime as I have lived in Florida, Texas and Alabama…my problem is that they get people all excited before they actually know what is going to happen..this causes one of two things to happen… either they get tired of hearing about it and don’t pay attention or cause a panic situation, which does not help either.
I agree, we need warnings but wouldn’t it be better to have accurate ones. The scare tactics are not what is needed. The problem with some is that they will not listen when the time comes.
Please understand I don’t want to see anyone hurt or homes destroyed. I have had both happen before, but the media is getting out of hand with the stories and the way they report.
Of the seven deaths that occurred from Fay , 2 were women swimming in the ocean..(not a smart move) and 1 from testing generators, the rest from traffic accidents.

I hope everyone is save and happy, we do need to keep a watchful eye but lets not put the cart before the horse, so to speak.
and Gwen… Ivan did hit the my area!

Comment by Janice Dean

Hey Anne, while I appreciate your ideas, I would not rest at night if I knew there was a possible major storm that I was not reporting on and warning as many people as I could. I know that lives are saved by our forecasts each and every year.

 
 
Comment by Brad

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is warning his country may respond to a U.S. missile shield in Europe through military means.

Medvedev says that the deployment of an anti-missile system close to Russian borders “will of course create additional tensions.”

 
Comment by Brad

Somehow, cattle seem to know how to find north and south, say researchers who studied satellite photos of thousands of cows around the world.

Most cattle that were grazing or resting tended to align their bodies in a north-south direction.

 
Comment by Anne

Janice… I think you miss understand me. I do want to be made aware of potential weather situations. It is the way is it presented that I disagree with. To state that a Cat 5 hurricane is coming is irresponsible. At the present time they are not even sure of the track it may take. If it goes over land it may well die out.
Please continue to do your job and do it well… that is all that I ask. You have a great site and we appreciate your willingness to let others speak.

 
Comment by Anne

miss understand=misunderstand sorry

 
Comment by Wenchie

Anne…Is the media saying a Cat 5 is one the way?….I havent heard that….All I have heard is that a major hurricane is definately possible (major hurricanes are Cat 3 and above)

 
Comment by Anne

Wenchie… heard it on the weather channel this morning. stated that if it got into the gulf it would be a Cat 5. That is what upset me.

 
Comment by Wenchie

I can understand why that would be upsetting Anne….That is quite a thing for the Weather Channel to declare….

 
Comment by Margie Gacki

Hey Anne,

Stick to listening to Janice–she has more common sense than the Weather Channel folks! She told of the possibility that if it goes over Cuba it could weaken or if it stays over water, then it could strengthen to a category 3 or up to a 5. She just talks about possibilities and not that anything is written in stone. I can understand why you would be upset when someone acts like it’s a done deal. I do hope the Weather Channel folks are very wrong and whatever it becomes, I hope it stays away from you!

Take care,
Margie

 
Comment by Wenchie

Anne…I just tuned into the Weather Channel…This afternoon they are now just saying that it has the potential of becoming a major hurricane so it appears they have toned down whatever it was you heard them say this morning… :)

So just be alert and prepared…but dont panic…that is the good thing about being able to track these things so far out….Gives people power to get ready so they dont need to panic and get caught off guard…

Good luck :)

 
Comment by Gwen in Mississippi

Anne,
If the weather channel is stating that it will absolutely be a Cat 5, then they are guilty of unnecessarily scaring folks, and you’d have every reason to be upset. If they are saying it has the potential of being a Cat 5, then they are reporting information that people need to be paying attention to. I don’t want any weather event reported in such a manner that people are scared out of their wits. That makes them unable to respond appropriately. Since you went through Ivan, then you know how devastating one of these big storms can be, and it’s always better to be safe than sorry. Let’s prepare for the worst and pray for the best. At least that way we’ll be much safer. I do agree with you that most (if not all) of the deaths from Fay were self-inflicted. It is not wise to swim/surf/parachute sail during a storm of any size. Be prepared to batten down the hatches—the weather could be getting very interesting somewhere in the Gulf in the next several days.
Gwen

 
Comment by Anne

Could someone please tell FOXnews that Katrina was a Cat3 when it made landfall!!Yes. it was a cat5 in the ocean but fell to a cat 3 before coming ashore. “Hurricane Katrina struck three years ago this weekend as a Category 5 after shuttering most of the gulf’s oil and natural gas production.” from foxnews.
This is the kind of reporting that I define as scare tactics.
And yes.. we all need to be prepared. Most of us that live in Hurricane areas already are!

 
Comment by TnDeb

Anne..

I agree with what all the ladies said.. and some media coverage can be over-zealous.

Janice is doing a great job on reporting the facts…she takes alot of pride in her work..and puts her heart and soul in it.Thats why we all love and respect her and what she does..

I don’t live in a hurricane prone area..and have no idea what it is like..but I can understand your concern… I am a believer in better safe than sorry..you said you heard the report on the Weather Channel..with all honesty..I quit watching them a long time ago..due to the fact they seemed to be about entertainment instead of reporting the weather…I was just waiting for one of the reporters to break into a song and dance..(literally)..

I wish you the very best, be safe, and please come back and post on the blog…I would love to know how things are going…and I think I speak for everyone when saying that..including Janice.

Deb

 
Comment by Wenchie

Anne…I checked out your concern….That report is an AP report posted on Fox…

 
Comment by Karianna

Hurricane Katrina struck three years ago this weekend as a Category 5 after shuttering most of the gulf’s oil and natural gas production.” from foxnews.

Just think if it actually had been a CATERGORY 5!!!! As it was — it caused major damage in our area.

 
Comment by Brad

The United States has canceled plans to try to dock a military ship carrying humanitarian aid in the Georgian port of Poti, where Russian forces are posted on the outskirts.

The ship, the Coast Guard cutter Dallas, was to have come to the Black Sea port Wednesday morning.

 
Comment by Jay

Should I cancel my trip to New Orleans this weekend? I’m leaving early monday

 
Comment by Brad Robertson

I was just wondering about the high pressure steering gustav and if it was still suppose to die out or what and if it does die out does that mean the panhadle is more favorable for a direct hit.
Thanks Brad

 

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